"The cacao price surge that began in 2024 shows no sign of settling even into 2026"—many purchasing and product-development staff at confectionery manufacturers must feel this way. The international price of cacao beans has ballooned to roughly four times the 2022 level, and the average retail unit price of commercial chocolate is running at +4.3% year on year. On the wagashi and Western-confectionery floor, where couverture and cocoa powder are purchased in commercial lots, the sharp rise in material costs is shaking everything from recipes to specifications to pricing design.
In this article, from the perspective of Minoyo, which has handled Kyoto confectionery raw materials for 120 years, we organizethe five reasons cacao beans are surgingand realistic measures the confectionery industry can take right now. After grasping the structural factors—climate change, dependence on West Africa, speculation, farmers leaving the trade, and expanding demand—we also introduce the latest trends in alternative ingredients and upcycling that the industry is advancing, such as Fuji Oil and our own "Japanese cacao" project.
The Current Situation: Cacao Beans at Record Highs
First, let's confirm with figures "what is happening now in the world cacao market." By accurately grasping price movements, we can set the premises for our response.
The International Price of Cacao Beans Is More Than Four Times What It Was Two Years Ago
The international futures price of cacao beans stayed stable for a long time at around $2,000 per ton through 2022. It then surged from late 2023, reaching the $9,000 range for the first time in April 2024. The peak was $10,709.30 per ton in January 2025, ballooning to roughly five times the 2022 level※1. Even as of April 2026, it is running at a high level of around $8,000 (about four times the 2022 level), and a return to 2022 levels is not expected for the time being.
For chocolate manufacturers and confectionery makers who handle hundreds to thousands of kilograms of cacao annually in commercial lots, the impact of raw-material costs rising three- to fivefold cannot be ignored. The higher the raw-material cost ratio of a product, the more it is forced into a dilemma: leave product prices unchanged and run a loss, or raise prices and see sales volume fall.
The Ripple Effect on Chocolate Retail Prices
The surge in raw-material prices is clearly rippling into retail prices too. According to a survey by Teikoku Databank, the average unit price of premium chocolate handled at department-store and other Valentine's events reached 436 yen per piece in 2026, a 4.3% increase year on year※2. Commercial chocolate bars have also risen from under 100 yen in early 2022 to around 145 yen in December 2024. Regardless of price tier (premium or mass-produced), the per-gram unit price rose about 1.4–1.6 times compared with five years ago.
These price increases show that manufacturers' efforts to absorb costs are near their limit. In many products, adjustments such as "reducing net weight" and "revising cacao content" are being made, and reviews of product lineups themselves are advancing—such as scaling back high-cacao products and focusing on flavors other than cacao.
What Is the "Cacao Shock" the Industry Speaks Of?
The industry collectively calls this historic surge in cacao beans and supply uncertainty the "cacao shock." It is an expression modeled on the 1970s oil shock, referring not to a mere temporary market fluctuation but to a period in which a structural supply-demand gap persists.
The characteristic of the cacao shock is that its cause is not singular. Poor harvests due to climate change, concentration risk in West Africa, speculative money, farmers leaving the trade, and continued expansion of demand—these are advancing in parallel, so even if any one is resolved, prices are structurally unlikely to return. In the next chapter, we look at the five reasons in turn.
the five reasons cacao beans are surging
The historic surge in cacao bean prices has compound structural factors. Read individually, each seems "likely to be resolved in the short term," but combined, they keep pushing prices up.
Reason 1: Poor Harvests Due to Climate Change and Extreme Weather
The environment suited to cacao cultivation is a humid tropical climate with an annual average temperature of 27°C or higher and maximum temperatures that do not exceed 32°C. Yet in 2024, in about 70% of the world's cacao-producing regions, the number of days exceeding 32°C increased by as many as 42 days per year※3. With high temperatures and disrupted rainfall patterns, cacao trees dropped their flower buds, and fruit-set rates fell sharply.
Disease is also serious. Cacao-specific diseases such as "black pod disease" and "cacao swollen shoot disease" are said to claim 30–40% of world output, and climate change is accelerating their spread. Rising temperatures lead not only to short-term poor harvests but also to the long-term problem of shrinking suitable growing areas—an issue being discussed as the "cacao 2050 problem."
Reason 2: Extreme Concentration in Two West African Countries
About two-thirds of the world's cacao bean output is concentrated in two West African countries: Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. This geographic concentration is the greatest structural factor making the cacao shock so severe. It is because if extreme weather or political turmoil occurs in this region, the world's entire supply is instantly shaken.
In 2024, Ghana reported the loss of cacao farmland due to illegal gold mining, and Côte d'Ivoire also saw continued output declines from disease. South American origins such as Ecuador and Brazil provide a certain amount of alternative supply, but in scale they do not match West Africa. The recognition that "raw materials dependent on a specific region carry high risk" is gradually spreading in the confectionery industry as well.
Reason 3: The Inflow of Speculative Money and Price Volatility
Cacao beans are traded on the futures markets in London and New York, and speculative money from hedge funds and the like greatly influences prices. When supply uncertainty triggers expectations of rising prices, investors' buying draws further buying, making it a commodity where price rises beyond the fundamentals can easily proceed.
In the phase of surpassing $10,000 from 2024 into 2025, prices moved to levels detached from the supply-demand balance. Short-term fluctuations driven by speculation are hard for the real-demand side to predict, and small and mid-sized confectionery shops that do not put long-term contracts or price hedges in place are the most likely to be hit.
Reason 4: Poverty Among Cacao Farmers and Their Departure From Farming
Though surprisingly often overlooked, the economic hardship of cacao farmers themselves is an important background factor in rising prices. According to World Bank estimates, the average daily income of cacao farmers in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana is under one dollar. With income failing to match the heavy labor, some 2.1 million cases of child labor are reported to continue worldwide※4。
As a result, more young people are leaving cacao cultivation and switching to more profitable cassava, rubber, or illegal gold mining. If the producers themselves decrease, then even if the climate improves, supply will not return. Mechanisms to secure farmers' income—such as fair trade and the "Living Income Differential"—have become an urgent need, but it takes time for the effects to appear.
Reason 5: Continued Demand Expansion and the Supply-Demand Gap
The world chocolate market was worth about $123 billion as of 2024, and with an annual growth rate of 4.8%, it is projected to expand to $184.7 billion by 2033※5. A major driver is the rapid growth of chocolate consumption in emerging countries such as China and India.
Supply is capped by the three factors of climate, farmers, and origin concentration, while demand alone keeps swelling—this is the current structural supply-demand gap. Because cacao takes 3–5 years from planting to harvest, even if a policy to increase production is announced now, it will reach the market by 2029 at the earliest. High, stable prices are assumed to continue on a scale of several years.
How Rising Prices Affect the Chocolate Industry and Confectionery Manufacturers
Soaring cacao prices affect confectionery manufacturers' operations on multiple fronts. The impact extends beyond raw material costs to product development, sales strategy, and supplier selection—reaching across the entire business.
A Direct Hit to Retail Prices and Cost Ratios
The higher a product's cacao content—bar chocolate, ganache, bonbon chocolate, cake decorations—the harder it is hit by rising costs. Even when raw material costs jump three to five times, there is a limit to how much consumers will accept in price, and the cost ratio ends up under pressure. Since late 2024, many manufacturers have moved to re-examine the "profitability ranking" of their product lineups.
Reformulation and Spec Changes Forced on the Front Line
Lowering cacao content, substituting other fats for cocoa butter, partially replacing cocoa powder with other ingredients—these reformulations are widely adopted as standard tactics for holding down ingredient costs. In Japan, a growing number of manufacturers are responding by adjusting how they label products under spec categories such as "quasi-chocolate" and "chocolate-utilizing food."
However, reformulation has a major impact on taste, mouthfeel, and texture, and carries the risk of lower consumer evaluations. R&D departments are called on to design new formulations that reconcile cost reduction with quality retention.
Tougher Procurement Conditions for Smaller Confectioners
Major manufacturers can hedge prices through long-term contracts, futures, and swaps, but small and mid-sized confectioners and individual pâtissiers are directly exposed to the spot market. In some cases "the price we bought at last month differs from this month's by 10–20%," quotation accuracy drops, and notices of delivery delays and quantity limits have increased. Suppliers who cannot ensure stable supply inevitably become candidates for switching.
How Will the Cacao Shock Develop from 2026 Onward?
"How long will prices stay high?" is the most important question for manufacturers planning their product lines. Here we organize the industry's outlook across three timeframes: short, medium, and long term.
Short Term: High Prices Expected to Continue Through 2026
In the short term, the harvest outlook for the 2025/26 season in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire holds the key. Even if the weather improves, there is a lag of six months to a year before any increased output reaches the market, so a sharp drop within 2026 is unlikely. Forecasts from the ICCO (International Cocoa Organization) and trade publications are dominated by the view that "high prices in the 8,000–10,000 dollar/ton range will continue."
Medium to Long Term: The 2050 Problem and Shrinking Growing Regions
The more serious medium- to long-term issue is the "cacao 2050 problem." Some studies project that suitable growing areas in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire could shrink by up to roughly 90% by 2050, making a structural contraction in supply all but unavoidable※6. Countermeasures such as emerging production regions (South America, Southeast Asia), varietal improvement, and indoor cultivation are advancing in research, but remain far from a level that could support current global demand.
"Prices Won't Return to Where They Were" Is the Industry Consensus
"Prices will not return to pre-2022 levels"—the views of the cacao industry, chocolate manufacturers, and ingredient trading firms largely converge on this single point. A scenario in which the structural factors resolve simultaneously is hard to envision, and from here the industry has entered a phase of redesigning products on the premise that "cacao is expensive."
In other words, what each manufacturer needs is not to "wait for prices to come back" but a strategic shift toward "having options that don't over-rely on cacao." In the next chapter, we look at the concrete measures the industry is choosing now.
Four Measures Confectionery Manufacturers Are Choosing Now
To weather the cacao shock, confectionery and chocolate manufacturers in Japan and abroad are combining several countermeasures. We've organized real-world examples of each.
Formulation Optimization and Selective Retention of High-Cacao Products
The most basic response is optimizing cacao content. High-cacao products (70% cacao or more) carry a large cost impact, so a growing number of examples involve trimming the lineup or lowering the cacao content to sell under the "quasi-chocolate" spec. On the other hand, for high-cacao products that carry strong added value and brand equity, some manufacturers choose to keep them even at the cost of a price increase.
Combined Use of Alternative Ingredients (Carob, Soybean Materials)
The use of alternative ingredients to supplement cacao flavor is spreading. A representative example is carob, a legume native to the Mediterranean (the carob tree). Long known as a chocolate-flavor substitute, it also offers the advantages of being caffeine-free and low in fat.
Since 2024, efforts to turn roasted soybeans into materials that approximate cacao flavor have also progressed—the initiatives of Fuji Oil and Minoyo described later are representative examples. Rather than "completely replacing cacao," the practical approach is to "supplement part of it with alternative materials and strike a balance between cost and quality."
The Shift to Sustainable Sourcing
Product development that emphasizes sustainable sourcing—Fairtrade certification, Rainforest Alliance certification, UTZ certification, and the like—is on the rise. For confectionery manufacturers, there are three practical checkpoints. The first islabeling compliance—using a certification logo requires prior application and a licensing fee, so the cost of revising packaging must be factored in. The second iscost absorption—certified cacao typically runs 5–15% higher than standard product, so a decision is needed on whether to pass this on to unit prices or to limit the certified items to a premium line. The third islot stability—certified cacao is often sourced via small-scale farmer cooperatives, and supply volumes fluctuate year to year, so it is safest to diversify procurement across multiple suppliers. As CSR context and ingredient-sourcing strategy become increasingly integrated, product portfolios are being redesigned with these factors in mind.
Trial Adoption of Domestic and New Materials
Aiming to break away from West African dependence, there are moves to trial cacao from emerging production regions, as well as cases of combining domestically born upcycled materials. In the next chapter, we introduce specific domestic upcycling cases now drawing attention.
Materials That Don't Rely on Cacao｜Domestic Upcycling Cases
Spurred by the cacao shock, material development in Japan is accelerating—"recreating chocolate flavor without using cacao beans" and "creating new materials from by-products." We organize two representative examples and the checkpoints for trial adoption.
Fuji Oil's "Anoza M"｜A Chocolate Substitute Material Using No Cacao Beans
Fuji Oil, a long-established maker of plant-based food ingredients, launched "Anoza M" in March 2025—a milk-chocolate-type commercial material that uses no cacao-bean-derived ingredients whatsoever. Designed by combining peas, carob, chocolate fats, and other ingredients, it is offered for baked goods and Western confectionery. A symbolic move by a major manufacturer stepping into zero-cacao territory, it reconciles a mouthfeel that rivals milk chocolate with the same handling as conventional products (Source:Fuji Oil press release, March 12, 2025）。
Minoyo's "Wa-no-Cacao" (A Cacao Alternative from Soybean Grounds)
The "Japanese cacao" project advanced by Minoyo, a Kyoto specialist in Kyoto confectionery raw materials, is an initiative that turns the roasting grounds left over from producing soybean coffee (a grain coffee made by grinding and extracting roasted soybeans)—which are distinct from the general "soybean grounds" of defatted soybeans—into a cacao alternative material. Drawing on 120 years of roasting expertise cultivated in making kinako, it adjusts the roasting level, particle size, and blend bag by bag to bring out a fragrant aroma and deep color close to cacao.
It is supplied to food manufacturers in forms suited to the application—powder, flake, paste, and more—and its use in gelato, baked goods, drinks, and other products has begun.Soybean Roastery, growing and roasting through grinding and packaging are handled under an integrated in-house system, so quality can be traced lot by lot. The idea of "turning by-products into materials" is drawing a growing number of inquiries as an option that simultaneously supports cost, domestic production, and sustainability.
Checkpoints for Trial-Adopting Upcycled Materials
When trial-adopting alternative materials, evaluate them from the following perspectives.
- Flavor and Color: Evaluate the finished result within the intended product formulation, not the material on its own
- Particle Size and Physical Properties: Whether a form suited to your production line—powder, flake, or paste—can be selected
- Lot Quality Stability: Since natural-material bases tend to show individual variation, agree on an acceptable range in advance
- Spec Labeling: Confirm the labeling rules that apply to your formulation—"chocolate," "quasi-chocolate," "chocolate-utilizing food," and so on
- Ease of Sample Prototyping: Whether small-lot prototyping support and on-site assistance are available
A 120-Year-Old Kyoto Confectionery Ingredient House on Material Strategy in the Age of Rising Cacao Prices
Rising cacao prices have confronted the industry, both Japanese and Western confectionery alike, with the fundamental question of "how to source materials." Here we organize, from three perspectives, how Minoyo—a long-established house of wagashi raw materials founded in 1902—is addressing this issue.
Roasting Expertise and the Idea of "Turning By-Products into Materials"
Minoyo's roots lie in making kinako. The 120 years of accumulated know-how in roasting soybeans and milling them into powder underpin the idea that "by controlling the roasting level, particle size, and blend, you can reshape a material's character."Soybean Roastery, the company noticed that the soybean grounds produced as a by-product when roasting soybean coffee retain a solid, fragrant aroma and deep color, and has continued research into turning them into confectionery ingredients.
Regenerating "by-products" as materials rather than discarding them—this idea creates great value when raw material costs are rising. That's because the cost structure of buying new cacao differs fundamentally from the cost of using soybean grounds already on hand.
Wa-no-Cacao, Soybean Coffee, and Kinako Built Around Soybeans
At the soybean roastery, we develop several material lines starting from soybeans. Kinako, deep-roasted kinako, soybean coffee, black soybean coffee, soybean dashi, and "wa-no-cacao." All are created from a single raw material—soybeans—with differences in roasting method and particle size producing materials of distinct flavor.
From a confectionery manufacturer's perspective, this offers the advantage of consolidating procurement with a single supplier while being able to trial multiple flavor variations. It's also possible to test the flavor of baked goods with wa-no-cacao and then build a cream formulation with the same company's deep-roasted kinako.
Diversifying Production-Region Risk Through Domestic Production
At the root of the cacao shock is the concentration risk of "West African dependence." In response, Minoyo makes the use of domestic soybeans centered on Kyoto its foundation, completing everything from cultivation to production within Japan. In our own fields in Nantan, Kyoto, employees themselves sow the seeds and grow soybeans in collaboration with local producers.
Simply switching to domestic, self-grown materials puts distance between you and international market swings like the cacao surge. Even if full replacement is difficult, incorporating a domestic alternative material into just part of the formulation produces a large risk-diversification effect. Sample prototyping and application consultations are available Contact, the product overview from material download , and the initiatives across the entire business can be viewed from Our Business & Why We Are Chosen, and the ordering process is summarized at Ordering Process & How to Order .
Frequently asked questions
Q1. How long will cacao prices stay elevated?
The views of the cacao industry, chocolate manufacturers, and ingredient trading firms largely align on "prices will not return to pre-2022 levels." A simultaneous resolution of the structural factors is hard to envision, and it is realistic to assume prices will hold in the high 8,000–10,000 dollar/ton range through 2026 as well. Rather than waiting for a short-term rebound, this is a phase that calls for shifting the premise of product design to "cacao is expensive."
Q2. Can you really make chocolate with cacao substitute materials?
Note that under food labeling rules, "if a product contains no cacao-bean-derived ingredients, it cannot be labeled as chocolate," but there are routes to market it as "quasi-chocolate" or "chocolate-flavored food." There are also moves like Fuji Oil announcing a zero-cacao-bean commercial material, and for baked-goods and Western-confectionery applications it functions well enough. Rather than full replacement, the practical approach is combined use in part of the formulation.
Q3. What's the difference between carob and soybean-based cacao substitutes?
Carob is the fruit of a Mediterranean legume, with natural sweetness and being caffeine-free as its distinguishing features. Soybean-based cacao substitutes start from roasted soybeans or soybean grounds and tend to bring out a fragrant aroma and deep color. Although the flavor directions are similar, the mouthfeel and how the color develops differ, so the surest approach is to run a sample comparison in the product you have in mind (baked goods, drinks, gelato, etc.).
Q4. Can we prototype with Minoyo's "Wa-no-Cacao"?
Yes, we support sample provision and prototyping consultations. You can select the form suited to your intended application (baked goods, gelato, drinks, and so on) from among powder, flake, and paste. For details, seethe Wa-no-Cacao product page, or thecontact formPlease get in touch from here.
Q5. Is domestic cacao available on the market?
Experimental cultivation of domestic cacao is underway in places like Okinawa and the Ogasawara Islands, but at the commercial-distribution level the volume is extremely small. Prices are also several times those of imported cacao, so it is not at a stage to replace general-purpose ingredients. For now, a realistic strategy for "reducing West African dependence" is to combine imported cacao from emerging production regions with domestic upcycled materials.
Summary｜A Timely Moment to Rethink Your "Material Strategy" Amid Rising Cacao Prices
The 2026 cacao shock has entered a phase where structural resolution is difficult. Rather than expecting a short-term price rebound, it is more realistic to redesign products on the premise that "cacao is expensive." In the short term, formulation optimization and price pass-through; in the medium term, trial adoption of alternative materials and sustainable sourcing—moving with this division of roles makes it easier to reconcile cost pressure with quality retention.
Domestic upcycling cases such as Fuji Oil's "Anoza M" and Minoyo's "Japanese cacao" are seeing wider trial adoption as options that simultaneously support cost, domestic production, and sustainability. If you'd like to build "options that don't over-rely on cacao" together, please feel free to reach out viaContactormaterial download. With 120 years of roasting expertise in Kyoto confectionery raw materials and a lineup of materials starting from soybeans, we'll make proposals suited to your front line.
References and sources
- Trends in cacao bean international futures prices (10,709.30 dollars/ton in January 2025):Sekai Keizai no Neta-cho, "Trends in Cacao Bean Prices"／The Nikkei, "Cacao Bean Futures Hit a New Record High"
- 2026 Valentine's chocolate averaging 436 yen per piece, up 4.3% year on year:Teikoku Databank press release
- Days above 32°C increased by 42 per year across 70% of cacao-producing regions:ELEMINIST, "The Background of Soaring Chocolate Prices in Numbers"
- Cacao farmers' daily income under 1 dollar, 2.1 million cases of child labor:ELEMINIST, "What Is the Cacao Shock?"
- Global chocolate market size 123 billion dollars → 184.7 billion dollars (4.8% annual growth): Same source
- The cacao 2050 problem (90% reduction in suitable growing areas in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire):Evergreen, "What Is the Cacao 2050 Problem?"
- Launch of Fuji Oil's "Anoza M":Fuji Oil press release, March 12, 2025／PR TIMES
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