「2024年から続いていたカカオ価格の高騰は、2026年に入っても落ち着く気配が見えません」——こう感じている製菓メーカーの仕入れ・商品開発担当者は多いはずです。カカオ豆の国際先物価格は2025年1月に2022年比で約5倍まで上昇し、百貨店のバレンタイン催事で扱う高級ショコラの1粒単価も前年比4.3％上昇。クーベルチュールやココアパウダーを業務用ロットで仕入れる和菓子・洋菓子の現場では、原料費の急増がレシピ・規格・売価設計のすべてを揺さぶっています。
本記事では、the five reasons cacao beans are surgingand realistic measures the confectionery industry can take right now. After grasping the structural factors—climate change, dependence on West Africa, speculation, farmers leaving the trade, and expanding demand—we also introduce the latest trends in alternative ingredients and upcycling that the industry is advancing, such as Fuji Oil and our own "Japanese cacao" project.
The Current Situation: Cacao Beans at Record Highs
First, let's confirm with figures "what is happening now in the world cacao market." By accurately grasping price movements, we can set the premises for our response.
カカオ豆の国際価格は2022年比で一時約5倍に
カカオ豆の国際先物価格は、2022年までは1トンあたり2,000ドル台で長く安定していました。それが2023年後半から急上昇し、2024年4月には初めて9,000ドル台へ。ピークは2025年1月の10,709.30ドル/トンで、2022年比で約5倍まで膨らみました※1。2022年水準に戻るかどうかは見通せません。
For chocolate manufacturers and confectionery makers who handle hundreds to thousands of kilograms of cacao annually in commercial lots, the impact of raw-material costs rising three- to fivefold cannot be ignored. The higher the raw-material cost ratio of a product, the more it is forced into a dilemma: leave product prices unchanged and run a loss, or raise prices and see sales volume fall.
The Ripple Effect on Chocolate Retail Prices
The surge in raw-material prices is clearly rippling into retail prices too. According to a survey by Teikoku Databank, the average unit price of premium chocolate handled at department-store and other Valentine's events reached 436 yen per piece in 2026, a 4.3% increase year on year※2。
These price increases show that manufacturers' efforts to absorb costs are near their limit. In many products, adjustments such as "reducing net weight" and "revising cacao content" are being made, and reviews of product lineups themselves are advancing—such as scaling back high-cacao products and focusing on flavors other than cacao.
What Is the "Cacao Shock" the Industry Speaks Of?
The industry collectively calls this historic surge in cacao beans and supply uncertainty the "cacao shock." It is an expression modeled on the 1970s oil shock, referring not to a mere temporary market fluctuation but to a period in which a structural supply-demand gap persists.
The characteristic of the cacao shock is that its cause is not singular. Poor harvests due to climate change, concentration risk in West Africa, speculative money, farmers leaving the trade, and continued expansion of demand—these are advancing in parallel, so even if any one is resolved, prices are structurally unlikely to return. In the next chapter, we look at the five reasons in turn.
the five reasons cacao beans are surging
The historic surge in cacao bean prices has compound structural factors. Read individually, each seems "likely to be resolved in the short term," but combined, they keep pushing prices up.
Reason 1: Poor Harvests Due to Climate Change and Extreme Weather
カカオの栽培に適した環境は、年間平均気温27℃以上で、最高気温が32℃を超えない湿潤な熱帯気候です。ところが2024年は、西アフリカ4カ国のカカオ産地の71%で、32℃を超えた日が年間42日増えました※3. With high temperatures and disrupted rainfall patterns, cacao trees dropped their flower buds, and fruit-set rates fell sharply.
さらに病害も深刻です。「ブラックポッド病」「カカオスウォレンシュート病」など、カカオ特有の病害も減産の要因になっています。気温上昇は短期的な不作だけでなく、栽培適地そのものの縮小という長期問題にもつながっており、これが「カカオ2050年問題」として議論されています。
Reason 2: Extreme Concentration in Two West African Countries
世界のカカオ豆生産量の約6割は、西アフリカのコートジボワールとガーナの2カ国に集中しています。この地理的集中こそ、カカオショックを深刻にしている最大の構造要因です。同地域で異常気象や政治的混乱が起きれば、世界全体の供給が一気に揺らぐ仕組みになっているためです。
In 2024, Ghana reported the loss of cacao farmland due to illegal gold mining, and Côte d'Ivoire also saw continued output declines from disease. South American origins such as Ecuador and Brazil provide a certain amount of alternative supply, but in scale they do not match West Africa. The recognition that "raw materials dependent on a specific region carry high risk" is gradually spreading in the confectionery industry as well.
Reason 3: The Inflow of Speculative Money and Price Volatility
Cacao beans are traded on the futures markets in London and New York, and speculative money from hedge funds and the like greatly influences prices. When supply uncertainty triggers expectations of rising prices, investors' buying draws further buying, making it a commodity where price rises beyond the fundamentals can easily proceed.
In the phase of surpassing $10,000 from 2024 into 2025, prices moved to levels detached from the supply-demand balance. Short-term fluctuations driven by speculation are hard for the real-demand side to predict, and small and mid-sized confectionery shops that do not put long-term contracts or price hedges in place are the most likely to be hit.
Reason 4: Poverty Among Cacao Farmers and Their Departure From Farming
意外に見落とされがちですが、カカオ農家自身の経済的苦境も価格上昇の重要な背景です。コートジボワールの平均的なカカオ農家世帯の収入は、2018年の調査で1人1日あたり約0.78ドルでした。重労働に対して収入が見合わず、ガーナとコートジボワールのカカオ生産に従事する児童は156万人（うち危険労働148万人）と報告されています※4。
As a result, more young people are leaving cacao cultivation and switching to more profitable cassava, rubber, or illegal gold mining. If the producers themselves decrease, then even if the climate improves, supply will not return. Mechanisms to secure farmers' income—such as fair trade and the "Living Income Differential"—have become an urgent need, but it takes time for the effects to appear.
Reason 5: Continued Demand Expansion and the Supply-Demand Gap
The world chocolate market was worth about $123 billion as of 2024, and with an annual growth rate of 4.8%, it is projected to expand to $184.7 billion by 2033※5. A major driver is the rapid growth of chocolate consumption in emerging countries such as China and India.
供給は気候・農家・産地集中の3要因で頭打ちなのに、需要だけが膨張し続ける——これが現在の構造的な需給ギャップです。
How Rising Prices Affect the Chocolate Industry and Confectionery Manufacturers
Soaring cacao prices affect confectionery manufacturers' operations on multiple fronts. The impact extends beyond raw material costs to product development, sales strategy, and supplier selection—reaching across the entire business.
A Direct Hit to Retail Prices and Cost Ratios
The higher a product's cacao content—bar chocolate, ganache, bonbon chocolate, cake decorations—the harder it is hit by rising costs. Even when raw material costs jump three to five times, there is a limit to how much consumers will accept in price, and the cost ratio ends up under pressure. Since late 2024, many manufacturers have moved to re-examine the "profitability ranking" of their product lineups.
Reformulation and Spec Changes Forced on the Front Line
Lowering cacao content, substituting other fats for cocoa butter, partially replacing cocoa powder with other ingredients—these reformulations are widely adopted as standard tactics for holding down ingredient costs. In Japan, a growing number of manufacturers are responding by adjusting how they label products under spec categories such as "quasi-chocolate" and "chocolate-utilizing food."
ただし配合変更は、味や食感、テクスチャーへの影響が大きく、消費者からの評価が落ちるリスクも伴います。R&D部門は、原価を下げながら味と食感をどこまで保てるかという線を引き直すことになります。
Tougher Procurement Conditions for Smaller Confectioners
大手メーカーは長期契約・先物取引・スワップなどで価格ヘッジを組めますが、中小製菓店や個人パティシエは現物市場の影響を直接受けます。短期的な価格変動は、見積りや調達計画に影響します。安定供給の見えない仕入れ先は、サプライヤー切り替えの検討対象にせざるを得ません。
How Will the Cacao Shock Develop from 2026 Onward?
"How long will prices stay high?" is the most important question for manufacturers planning their product lines. Here we organize the industry's outlook across three timeframes: short, medium, and long term.
短期：収穫が戻っても価格に出るまで時間がかかる
短期的には、ガーナ・コートジボワールの2025/26年シーズンの収穫見通しが鍵を握ります。仮に天候が改善しても、増産分の出荷が市場に行き渡るまでに半年〜1年のタイムラグがあるため、2026年内の急落は望み薄です。
Medium to Long Term: The 2050 Problem and Shrinking Growing Regions
中長期で深刻なのが「カカオ2050年問題」です。ガーナとコートジボワールでは、気温上昇によって栽培適地が縮小するおそれが指摘されています。新興産地（南米・東南アジア）や品種改良、屋内栽培など、対応策は研究が進んでいるものの、現在の世界需要を支えるレベルには遠い状態です。
2022年以前の価格に戻るかは見通せない
構造要因が同時に解消するシナリオは描きづらいため、「カカオが高い」前提で商品設計を組み直しておくほうが安全です。
In other words, what each manufacturer needs is not to "wait for prices to come back" but a strategic shift toward "having options that don't over-rely on cacao." In the next chapter, we look at the concrete measures the industry is choosing now.
Four Measures Confectionery Manufacturers Are Choosing Now
To weather the cacao shock, confectionery and chocolate manufacturers in Japan and abroad are combining several countermeasures. We've organized real-world examples of each.
Formulation Optimization and Selective Retention of High-Cacao Products
The most basic response is optimizing cacao content. High-cacao products (70% cacao or more) carry a large cost impact, so a growing number of examples involve trimming the lineup or lowering the cacao content to sell under the "quasi-chocolate" spec. On the other hand, for high-cacao products that carry strong added value and brand equity, some manufacturers choose to keep them even at the cost of a price increase.
Combined Use of Alternative Ingredients (Carob, Soybean Materials)
The use of alternative ingredients to supplement cacao flavor is spreading. A representative example is carob, a legume native to the Mediterranean (the carob tree). Long known as a chocolate-flavor substitute, it also offers the advantages of being caffeine-free and low in fat.
Since 2024, efforts to turn roasted soybeans into materials that approximate cacao flavor have also progressed—the initiatives of Fuji Oil and Minoyo described later are representative examples. Rather than "completely replacing cacao," the practical approach is to "supplement part of it with alternative materials and strike a balance between cost and quality."
The Shift to Sustainable Sourcing
フェアトレード認証、レインフォレスト・アライアンス認証など、サステナブル調達を打ち出す商品開発が増えています。製菓メーカーの実務上のチェックポイントは3つあります。1つ目はlabeling compliance—using a certification logo requires prior application and a licensing fee, so the cost of revising packaging must be factored in. The second iscost absorption——認証カカオは通常品より割高になるため、商品単価への転嫁か、対象商品をプレミアムラインに絞る判断が要ります。3つ目はlot stability—certified cacao is often sourced via small-scale farmer cooperatives, and supply volumes fluctuate year to year, so it is safest to diversify procurement across multiple suppliers. As CSR context and ingredient-sourcing strategy become increasingly integrated, product portfolios are being redesigned with these factors in mind.
Trial Adoption of Domestic and New Materials
Aiming to break away from West African dependence, there are moves to trial cacao from emerging production regions, as well as cases of combining domestically born upcycled materials. In the next chapter, we introduce specific domestic upcycling cases now drawing attention.
Materials That Don't Rely on Cacao｜Domestic Upcycling Cases
カカオショックを契機に、国内では「カカオ豆を使わずにチョコレート風味を再現する」「副産物から新素材を生み出す」といった素材開発が加速しています。代表的な2例と、試験採用時のチェックポイントを整理します。
Fuji Oil's "Anoza M"｜A Chocolate Substitute Material Using No Cacao Beans
Fuji Oil, a long-established maker of plant-based food ingredients, launched "Anoza M" in March 2025—a milk-chocolate-type commercial material that uses no cacao-bean-derived ingredients whatsoever. Designed by combining peas, carob, chocolate fats, and other ingredients, it is offered for baked goods and Western confectionery. A symbolic move by a major manufacturer stepping into zero-cacao territory, it reconciles a mouthfeel that rivals milk chocolate with the same handling as conventional products (Source:Fuji Oil press release, March 12, 2025）。
Minoyo's "Wa-no-Cacao" (A Cacao Alternative from Soybean Grounds)
The "Japanese cacao」プロジェクトは、大豆珈琲をつくる際に出る副産物（豆粕・微粉）を、カカオ代替素材に仕立てる取り組みです。美濃与が大豆の焙煎を始めたのは令和元年（2019年）です。大豆珈琲をつくるときの焙煎に由来する香ばしさと深い色合いが副産物に残っており、粒度を整えて菓子原料として使える形にしています。
提供形態はパウダーです。ジェラート、焼菓子、ドリンクなどでの評価用サンプルをご請求いただけます。Soybean Roasteryとして焙煎・粉砕までを自社内で行っているため、原料の流れをたどることができます。「副産物を素材化する」という発想は、コスト・国産化・サステナビリティを同時に支える選択肢のひとつになります。
試験採用の前に確認すること
When trial-adopting alternative materials, evaluate them from the following perspectives.
- Flavor and Color: Evaluate the finished result within the intended product formulation, not the material on its own
- Particle Size and Physical Properties：粉体の粒度や流動性が、自社の製造ラインに合うか
- 規格の擦り合わせ：受け入れ時の検査項目と許容範囲を事前に決めておく
- Spec Labeling: Confirm the labeling rules that apply to your formulation—"chocolate," "quasi-chocolate," "chocolate-utilizing food," and so on
- サンプルの入手：評価用のサンプルを取り寄せられるか
大豆を起点にした、美濃与のカカオ代替の取り組み
カカオ高騰は、和洋問わず「素材をどう調達するか」という根本問題を業界に突きつけました。明治35年創業の美濃与は、和菓子原料の老舗としてこの問題にどう向き合っているか、3つに分けて整理します。
大豆珈琲の副産物をカカオ代替の原料にする
美濃与は明治35年（1902年）創業の京菓子原材料商社で、令和元年（2019年）からは伏見の大豆専用工場で大豆も焙煎しています。Soybean Roasteryでは、大豆珈琲をつくる際に副産物として出る豆粕や微粉に香ばしさと深い色合いが残っていることに着目し、これを原料化したのが「和のカカオ」です。
副産物を捨てずに素材として生かす——この発想は、原料コストの上昇局面で大きな価値を生みます。新規にカカオを買うコストと、既に手元にある豆粕を活用するコストでは、構造そのものが違うためです。
Wa-no-Cacao, Soybean Coffee, and Kinako Built Around Soybeans
大豆焙煎所では、大豆を起点に複数の素材ラインを展開しています。きな粉、深煎りきな粉、大豆珈琲、大豆だし、そして「和のカカオ」。いずれも大豆を起点にした素材です。
From a confectionery manufacturer's perspective, this offers the advantage of consolidating procurement with a single supplier while being able to trial multiple flavor variations. It's also possible to test the flavor of baked goods with wa-no-cacao and then build a cream formulation with the same company's deep-roasted kinako.
国産に寄せると産地リスクはどう変わるか
カカオショックの根本にあるのは「西アフリカ依存」という産地集中リスクです。これに対して、美濃与は国産大豆の活用を主軸にしています。和のカカオの原料となる大豆は北海道産が中心です。あわせて京都・南丹の畑では、社員自らが種をまき、大豆の栽培に挑戦しています。栽培した大豆はまだ和のカカオの原料にはなっていませんが、原料をつくる側の景色を知るための取り組みとして続けています。
国産原料に寄せた分だけ、カカオのような国際相場の変動から距離を置けます。完全に置き換えなくても、配合の一部を国産の代替素材にするだけで、相場に振られる範囲は狭くなります。サンプルのご請求は Contact, the product overview from material download , and the initiatives across the entire business can be viewed from Our Business & Why We Are Chosen, and the ordering process is summarized at Ordering Process & How to Order .
Frequently asked questions
Q1. How long will cacao prices stay elevated?
2022年以前の水準に戻るかどうかは見通せません。構造要因が同時に解消するシナリオは描きづらいため、短期での値戻りを待つよりも、商品設計の前提を「カカオが高い」に切り替えて考えておくほうが安全です。
Q2. Can you really make chocolate with cacao substitute materials?
カカオ分を含まない製品は、公正競争規約上の「チョコレート」「準チョコレート」とは表示できません。チョコレートに近い風味の菓子を作る原料としてカカオ代替素材を使い、名称は業界団体などに事前に確認します。不二製油のようにカカオ豆由来原料を使わない業務用素材を発売する動きも出ています。完全置き換えではなく、配合の一部に併用する使い方が現実的です。
Q3. What's the difference between carob and soybean-based cacao substitutes?
Carob is the fruit of a Mediterranean legume, with natural sweetness and being caffeine-free as its distinguishing features. Soybean-based cacao substitutes start from roasted soybeans or soybean grounds and tend to bring out a fragrant aroma and deep color. Although the flavor directions are similar, the mouthfeel and how the color develops differ, so the surest approach is to run a sample comparison in the product you have in mind (baked goods, drinks, gelato, etc.).
Q4. 美濃与の「和のカカオ」はどんな形で提供されますか？
パウダーでの提供です。サンプルのご請求を承っています。詳しくはthe Wa-no-Cacao product page, or thecontact formからお問い合わせください。
Q5. Is domestic cacao available on the market?
沖縄や小笠原などで国産カカオの栽培は試みられていますが、輸入カカオを汎用原料として置き換える段階にはありません。当面は「西アフリカ依存を減らす」ためには、新興産地の輸入カカオや国産アップサイクル素材を組み合わせる戦略が現実的です。
まとめ｜カカオが高い前提で仕入れを組み直す
The 2026 cacao shock has entered a phase where structural resolution is difficult. Rather than expecting a short-term price rebound, it is more realistic to redesign products on the premise that "cacao is expensive." In the short term, formulation optimization and price pass-through; in the medium term, trial adoption of alternative materials and sustainable sourcing—moving with this division of roles makes it easier to reconcile cost pressure with quality retention.
Domestic upcycling cases such as Fuji Oil's "Anoza M" and Minoyo's "Japanese cacao」のような国内アップサイクル事例は、コスト・国産化・サステナビリティを同時に支える選択肢として検討されています。和のカカオのサンプルのご請求はContactから、製品概要はmaterial downloadからご確認いただけます。
References and sources
- Trends in cacao bean international futures prices (10,709.30 dollars/ton in January 2025):Sekai Keizai no Neta-cho, "Trends in Cacao Bean Prices"／The Nikkei, "Cacao Bean Futures Hit a New Record High"
- 2026 Valentine's chocolate averaging 436 yen per piece, up 4.3% year on year:Teikoku Databank press release
- 西アフリカ産地の71%で32℃超日が年間42日増加（2024年）：Climate Central / Christian Aid「Analysis: Climate and Cocoa」（2025）
- カカオ農家の日収1ドル未満：ELEMINIST, "What Is the Cacao Shock?"／ガーナ・コートジボワールのカカオ生産に従事する児童労働156万人（うち危険労働148万人）：NORC at the University of Chicago「NORC Final Report: Assessing Progress in Reducing Child Labor in Cocoa Growing Areas of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana」（2020年）
- 世界チョコレート市場規模1,230億ドル→1,847億ドル（年成長4.8％）：ELEMINIST, "What Is the Cacao Shock?"
- Launch of Fuji Oil's "Anoza M":Fuji Oil press release, March 12, 2025／PR TIMES
Related Articles
For themes related to rising cacao prices and alternative materials, please also see the following articles.
- List of raw-material guide articles：A category that systematically organizes how to choose wagashi and confectionery ingredients
- List of commercial-use guide articles：A category organizing the decision-making criteria for purchasing and procurement
- List of articles tagged soybean roastery：Soybean materials such as kinako, soybean coffee, and wa-no-cacao
